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Monday, September 12, 2016

The Battleground Poll and Trump's Path to Victory

The GWU Battleground Poll published on September 9 shows Donald Trump a clear path to victory: win the conservative vote.  The data in this poll has been consistent over the last two decades, and the data in the latest poll is no different.  The overwhelming majority of Americans are self-identified conservatives.
The September 2016 Battleground Poll shows that 54% of all Americans are self-identified conservatives and only 38% are self-identified liberals, which means that if the tiny "moderate" 3% and the equally tiny "unsure/refused" 4% are excluded, then the conservative candidate would beat the liberal candidate by a landslide of 58.7% of the vote.  If the two groups of ideologically unclear voters broke even for the two candidates, then the conservative candidate would win "only" by 57.5% of the vote. MORE

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